How To Assess Tennis Players for Betfair Trading

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In this article, we're going to look at how to assess tennis players as part of your pre-match analysis.

Choose your trading strategy

The first thing to say when you're looking to assess tennis players is to have a good idea of which trading strategies you plan on using when you're trading. 

This has a huge bearing on the amount of data and the type of data that you need from each player. 

For example, if you're looking to trade using the strategy ‘back the favourite’, then you would look at an all rounded player. So you'd be looking at a number of different data points such as their strength of serve, their return of service, conversion point ration etc. 

But if you were looking to trade the break strategy, then clearly you would put a lot more emphasis on players who have proven to win a lot more return games and break their opponents serve. 

In our Advantage Trading System we use nine data points to select the matches and predict the players but that is one heck of a lot of work so you don’t need to do that!

Instead, keep it simple and stick to just four main data points. 

What data do you need?

1. Service games won ratio

This is the percentage of service games the player has won.  The higher the score the more reliable their serve

2. Returns Games Won ratio

This is the percentage of games that a player takes from their opponent on their opponents serve.

3. Previous head to head matches

Any previous matches where these opponents have played each other. Suggest looking back no more than 3 years

4. ATP/WTA rankings

And lastly, look at the player rankings. Often when both players are similarly matched, what tends to give one player an edge is their ranking.  The higher ranked player (one with the lowest rank number) tends to edge it out just through having more consistency and being able to withstand pressure points.

Where do you go to find this data?

For the player rankings, service & return games won ratios, head over to the tour websites.  ATPtour.com for men or wtatennis.com for women.

For the head to head results visit www.flashscore.com and search for either player.  Find the forthcoming match and click on the tab H2H

For example, let’s look at a match between Dimitrov v Cilic. 

This data will help you when trading but to get a feel for who may win the match, I use a simple scoring method.

Just give a point for each player with the best value.  Add them up and go with the player with the highest points.

If the score is 2-2, I suggest backing the highest ranked player.

Typically, higher ranked players are more consistent and more likely to cope with the pressure points in the match.

So that's how you assess tennis players prior to matches. And of course, depending on your strategy you would put more emphasis on one or more of these data points. 

I hope this helps you

 

Please remember: These articles are written for all trading abilities.  If some of the terms used above don’t make sense consider enrolling onto our free tennis trading course for beginners.