MatchSelect - How to Earn Your Monthly Fee in Just One Trade
MatchSelect is a service for experienced tennis traders, saving time in researching players and finding the best matches for trading using back the favourite trading strategies.
The problem is, favourites’ odds at the start of the match are usually far too low to trade until they get into trouble.
So making money using MatchSelect matches can at first glance seem a bit tricky.
In this video, I'll show you one trading method that can be used with MatchSelect matches that can produce a profit in a single trade which could pay your monthly subscription.
So to be clear, match, select finds matches for traders to trade. They're not tips to be gambled.
You can't normally back a favourite at the beginning of the match because their odds are typically too low to do that.
Instead, you have to wait until they get into some kind of trouble, like they’re 0- 30 on their serve or they've lost a service game or even 1st set.
Then you place a back trade so if they start playing better their odds will fall and you’ll be in profit.
That's the way you make money on MatchSelect: you wait for the favourite to get into trouble and place a trade as they return to form.
A proven trading strategy
One trading method that can be used to profit if the favourite gets behind in the match is to lay the underdog when they win the first set.
Matches chosen by MatchSelect are optimised for the favourite going on to win the match.
So if the underdog wins the first set, then the chances are that they're not going to hold onto the match.
So that's the theory. But does it work in practice?
Real World Data
In this video, we used the actual matches and results chosen by MatchSelect over a 60 day period covering 19th February - 20th April 2021. A total of 512 matches.
What we found is that 25% of the time the underdog won the 1st set.
And when they did win the 1st set, they won the 2nd set around 50% of the time.
So the trick is to find a way of profiting from this 50/50 split.
How the strategy works
If we lay the underdog when they win 1st set and they then lose the 2nd set, we hedge our position for a profit.
But if the underdog looks like they're going to run away with the match we hedge before the end of the 2nd set for a loss.
As the wins/losses are 50/50 we need to be sure our losing trades are less than our winning trades
So what we do is if the odds of the underdog fall a further 50% we hedge out for a loss.
This way, our losses will be smaller than our wins.
Examples of a winning and a losing trade
Let's say the underdog has won the 1st set and their odds have dropped to 1.5
We place a LAY trade for £100, so our total liability if they won the match would be £50.
If they lose the 2nd set, their odds will increase to around 3.0 and we hedge for a profit of £50 (you can check this using our hedging calculator)
But if they break the Favourite's service game and their odds drop by 50% to 1.25, then we hedge for a loss of £20
Therefore, in our test batch of 512 matches, the underdog won the 1st set in 128 matches.
And in 63 of those matches, the underdog lost the 2nd set.
So in 63 matches we won and in 65 matches we lost.
Obviously the values will depend on the odds and stake values, but in our case study the average odds for the underdog after they had won 1st set was 1.7
Laying a player over 1.5? Really?
Tennis trading folklore suggests no-one should ever lay a player for more than 1.5, but as you can see it really depends on your risk/reward ratio
In this case study, using £100 stake values, the total profit over 60 days, assuming you were able to trade every match(!), was £1742.97
Not a bad return on your £35 monthly MatchSelect subscription!!