How Our Tennis Match Analysis Service Works
This week we launched our new tennis match analysis service called MatchSelect that does two things:
1. It researches every player in every match for ATP/WTA tours & some Challenger tournaments
2. It then finds the matches best suited for trading using Back the Favourite trading strategies
In this video I’ll explain how it does it and how you can do your own match research similar to MatchSelect
Let 's define exactly what MatchSelect is: It is essentially a tennis match analysis service that finds matches that are optimised for trading Back the Favourite strategies.
Is it better than you doing your own research?
I guess that depends on how thorough you are in your research. But it is certainly quicker and studies more data than any of us have the time to uncover.
Because MatchSelect is optimised to find matches where the favourite is highly likely to win, the KPI for measuring the quality of matches selected is picking a winner.
MatchSelect picks winners
Yes, but that does NOT make it a tipping service.
Why? Because the odds of the Favourite are usually too low to make a decent return. These matches need to be traded.
Which means waiting for an opportunity when the Favourite slips up, such as losing their service or a set, but sometimes the Favourite is so good the only opportunities are when they get behind in a service game, like 0-30 or 30-40.
If you like trading matches by backing the favourite then the only way you will make money is when they get into trouble and their odds go up, however briefly.
MatchSelect is our first match analysis service and we aim to launch more in the coming months to cater for different trading strategies such as Back the Server or Swing trading.
Trading the best matches suitable for your strategy
Whatever your preferred trading style, to be consistently successful you need to be trading the right matches. For example, it’s tough using Back the Server in a match where neither player has a particularly strong serve.
This is where your pre-match research comes in. Planning is everything in tennis trading. So finding the matches best suited to your preferred trading style is essential.
We chose Back the Favourite trading strategy to be the first selection of matches because it is the most popular.
It may not be the most profitable strategy in the tennis trader’s toolbox, but it is certainly easy to master and given Favourites win most of the time, it is fairly reliable too.
What data does MatchSelect use to find these matches?
1. Six player statistics are used to assess both players' strengths & weaknesses:
Service games Won - Return Games Won - 1st Service Points Won - 2nd Service Points won - Break Points Converted - Break Points Saved
Each statistic is weighted according to how important they are in affecting the result of the match
2. Recent H2H results and, where relevant, the surface played
3. ATP & WTA rankings plus for around 100 players we use ELO rankings too
4. MatchSelect analyses these datasets and then produces a probability for each player to win the match.
5. Finally, each player probability is then compared to the current marketplace probability as defined by the odds in Betfair and 'adjusted' using a proprietary factor.
So that’s how MatchSelect picks the matches suitable for trading using Back the Favourite.
It is the result of one year's work & development here at netProfit. But is it any good? And could you do any better researching matches yourself?
Firstly, we publish the results on our website everyday so anyone can see how successful MatchSelect has been in predicting the winner.
Currently, the 60 day rolling average success rate is around 75% but to be clear this only refers to how well MatchSelect did in is predicting the winner. It has nothing to do with how profitable a trade has been because the trading bit is down to traders, not MatchSelect.
Secondly, match research is a combination of science and art: you need accurate up-to-date data but how you make sense of it is more of an art.
So how you blend the data is the clever bit and different methods will produce different results.
But the biggest benefit MatchSelect offers tennis traders is that it saves a heck of a lot of time.
You won't be surprised to hear that we no longer manually research matches for Back the Favourite; we just use MatchSelect.
We still plan each match though so we know when to enter and exit, plus we estimate our potential profits and liabilities using the free tools.
If you fancy trying MatchSelect there is a free 7 day trial.
But remember, the matches are optimised for Back the favourite strategies.
So if you like to follow the favourite in your tennis trading, give MatchSelect a go and see if it helps you win more trades by selecting better quality matches for you to trade.