Tennis Trading Research: Finding the Best Matches to Trade

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Let's face it, trading can be boring sometimes.

You're waiting around for something to happen and maybe getting frustrated that your player seems to be faffing about..."hurry up & break their serve!"

In this article, we look at ways of maximising your time so you only trade matches where you have a good chance of making money.

We can't get rid of the boring bits...but you will spend more time trading and less time waiting.

Before you trade any match you need to have an idea of what trading strategy or strategies you intend to use.

Trading strategy is THE most important feature of trading and defines both the matches you trade and the players you back/lay.

For example, if you enjoy trading using Lay the Leader strategy then you need to make sure you're laying a player that has good chance of a comeback.

Too many people trade thinking they have a winning strategy but the truth is you only win when you apply the right strategy to the right matches.

So how do you do this?  You need to have a good understanding of how your strategy works.

Let's use as an example the Swing Trading strategy.  This is when a player goes behind in the match, either they have lost their service game or even the set.

How this trading strategy makes money is by using the predictable odds of tennis.  So, during the 1st set, when a player breaks back their odds tend to return to their starting odds.

Example: Federer loses a service game so his odds go up from 1.4 to around 2.1. The 'swing' in this trading method is backing Federer at the higher odds and then waiting for him to break back where his odds will return to 1.4.

And when it works like that it can be a very profitable strategy.

But in most matches you will be trading it is unlikely either player will be as strong or predictable as Federer. 

Therefore you need to find matches that match your strategy.  In this case, looking for players with a good record in breaking their opponents serve.

To begin with look at the matches for today in Betfair and choose matches at a time you are able to trade (don't waste time researching matches that you can't follow live either by video or scorecard).

Then look at the odds for the players in these matches. 

For this strategy, you can either choose to select matches where the players' odds are very similar (e.g. 1.9 & 2.1) or you can select matches where there is an obvious favourite.

If you choose matches which have players with similar odds, then this suggests the matches will be close and it is likely both players will lose serve.

But if you choose matches with a dominant favourite, then you would be waiting to see if the favourite lost their serve so you can trade with the confidence tjat the favourite will likely make a comeback.

Whichever match selection to choose, go to the websites ATP and WTA to check the service records for both players.

The ideal scenario for the Swing trading strategy is to find matches where both players have poor service records suggesting there will be ample opportunities for comebacks.

For strong favourites, look for both a strong service record but also a good Returns Game Won record. 

So the key to finding the best matches for trading depends on the strategies you intend to use.

There are no strategies that 'always win'...they don't exist and never did!

Successful tennis trading requires ability and careful planning so you know what to do when something happens BUT you focus your trading skills on the matches with the most likely outcomes.